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Episode 1083: All-Star Off-Day Emails
Date July 13, 2017 Summary Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about the All-Star Game, then answer listener emails about more oddly configured fields, fouling balls straight back, non-standard batting stances, FanGraphs WAR vs. Baseball-Reference WAR, a career-earnings guessing game, All-Star Game accomplishments, knickers vs. pajama pants, stats vs. scouts, a Home Run Derby hypothetical, awarding home-run value based on defense, a tweak to ground rule doubles, and more. Topics * Strange ballpark configurations * foul balls * Different batting stances * WAR preferences * All Star Game Stats * Rickey Henderson v Koji Uehara * Pants * Home Run Derby * Home run distance scoring * Ground Rule Doubles Intro * Smash Mouth, "All Star (Instrumental)" Outro * The Posies, "I Guess You’re Right" Banter * All-Star game reaction. * Does the people leaving early mean anything? * Would you rather pay for an all star game or Mike Trout in a low minors injury rehab game Email Questions * Aaron: With all the talk about strange ballpark features, I would like to point you in the direction of a classic college ballpark. The University of Texas Longhorns played at Clark Field until the 70's, which featured Billy Goat Hill - an actual 30 ft limestone cliff in left-center field. The cliff was in-play, and many balls hit to center could only be reached by the left fielder, who would have to run up a narrow path. Being born more than a decade after it was shut down (and in Canada instead of Texas), I can only speculate what kind of havoc this bifurcated outfield design would have created in the run-scoring environment. Could Clark Field be one of the best possible environments to use the 4-man outfield, positioning "center fielders" at both the top and bottom of the cliff for fly-ball heavy opponents? * James: Here's my contribution to the baseball field hill genre. It's Stevenson Field in El Segundo, just — and I mean just — south of LAX. El Segundo High School, a couple of blocks away, plays its home games there.I would estimate this is a bit steeper than 45 degrees, I having played on it a couple of times and looking at the picture now. It's not as tall/long as The Heights', but it's still substantial. The "chalk" on the hill is actually some sort of imbedded permanent piece (plastic maybe), as you can see. My team's pregame stretching routine involved running to the fence to do some calf stretches/leg swings and it was not easy to maintain momentum up to the fence, and running back down it was somewhat difficult in the way that descending steep inclines always is (do you try not to slow yourself, taking energy and missing out on the fun of extra speed, or do you embrace the speed but have some harsh heel-strikes?) * John Vuch: Was catching up on my podcasts while out running this morning and although it’s probably over a week later, thought I’d send you a couple of 2010 photos from our rookie league affiliate in Johnson City, TN. Due to the local football stadium being built into the hill behind right field, the baseball stadium was constructed with a 15 foot high hill at a steep angle that ran from the right field line to nearly center field. I’d usually see about 5-7 games a year there, and over the course of a series would typically see at least a couple faceplants from outfielders tracking down a ball in the gap, or even more amusingly, seeing a player chase a ball up the hill and then attempt to make a throw, only to spike it into the ground a few feet past the warning track due to the severe angle of the hill. The hill (along with the football stadium) was removed either in 2011 or 2012, which took away some of the charm of the park, but having a more conventional playing surface also made it significantly safer for the players, so all in all probably a fair tradeoff. It was definitely a quirky park at the time. The pictures I sent don’t show it very clearly, but the right field part of center field was strange too – as the hill went straight across right field and then made a curve, so it made for a tough place for a centerfielder to play – on balls in the deep RCF gap, the CF wasn’t sure if it was going to go to the deep part of the park, or go up the hill. That’s where a lot of a outfielders bit the dust. I remember in a playoff game in 2010 - Osvaldo Arcia was a top prospect for the Elizabethton Twins and he made a long run after a ball in that area and just as he was about to make the catch, the hill got him, and our hitter got either a triple or inside the park HR. A lot of anxious moments as Arcia was shaken up, but fortunately he wasn’t badly hurt. Never saw anyone suffer a truly serious injury because of the hill, but a lot of awkward looking plays with guys falling down. * Ben: If you're already inundated with these examples, or just flat bored of them, feel free to ignore this. But I was sitting in the press box in Philly Sunday and Aaron Altherr fouled off three of the first seven pitches of an at-bat directly below us, all to different seats in the span of, no exaggeration, about 20 feet, before crushing the 8th pitch 421 feet out to left. I know it's simply anecdotal, but such is this game, and such is life. * Clay: I've always been intrigued by batting stances, especially really odd ones. Batting stances of players such as Craig Counsell and Kevin Youkilis come to mind because they would set up with the bat outside the "normal" setup. This seems inefficient because it seems like the hitter would have to use extra energy to bring the bat down from the setup position so they can swing along a normal swing plain. My question is, why would a hitter use an "odd" or silly looking batting stance? Is there evidence that these stances have been used to psyche out pitchers? Also, is there evidence pitchers have used certain pitches to use a batter's particular stance against them? * Alex: I had a question about fWAR and bWAR, specifically how it relates to Ubaldo Jimenez’ contract. From my understanding, fWAR uses FIP in calculation and bWAR uses actual runs given up, so it seems like fWAR is based on what should have happened based on what the pitcher can control and bWAR based on what acutally happened. So I was in a discussion on an Camdenchat, the sbnation orioles blog, about whether Jimenez’ contract will look as bad after taking the 4 years as a whole, since he has had some very good stretches, along with his terrible stretches. Over the 3 full seasons that he has been on the Orioles, he has accrued 4.7 fWAR vs 2.2 bWAR. Taking fWAR, that’s an average 1.5 WAR per season. If he’s making 12.5 mil a year on average, and at 8 mil per 1 WAR for a free agent, that’s about right on par with his contract. However, if you take his bWAR, he is worth roughly ½ of his “expected” (don’t know a better word for it) free agent WAR/$. My question is basically, why should you use fWAR when trying to decide if a player was worth it over his contract, since that’s not what actually happened when looking back at his seasons? Wouldn’t bWAR be better to use in this situation? I can’t believe in any stat that tells me that Ubaldo on the Orioles wasn’t a huge dumpster fire, so I’m all aboard using bWAR for arguments like this. * David: One of my favorite things Ben and Sam did was guessing the career earnings of players, then looking them up. So here's my challenge: how much money did Rickey Henderson make in his career? And how much money has Koji Uehara made in his career? They are both interesting, for different reasons, but for one specific reason. * Luke: Do baseball teams actually provide knickers to players anymore? The high sock look imitates the olden days when ball players wore knickers, i.e. short pants hemmed right below the knee. Do the high sock players wear the same pants as the pajama pants players and just cuff them up inside out? Or do teams actually provide two sets of pants to choose from-long pants and knickers? In spite of internet research, I can't figure this out, please help. Paul Lukas, Uni Watch: Players can get whatever length of pants they want. Most high-cuffers request shorter pants; others just bunch up their long pants. * Zane: My question is this: suppose you are the GM of a generic major league team. However, Baseball God has decreed that you may have access to either a) the normal scouting reports for every player, with their skills rated on the 20-80 scale, along with Statcast data for hit speed and launch angle (pitch speed and spin rate for pitchers) OR b) everything on their Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference page, excluding any direct scouting reports. Which do you choose and why? * Michael: With the Home Run Derby this week I went back and watched Josh Hamilton's 2008 Home Run Derby. So Hamilton hit 28, it was a good time, but what if he just didn't stop? At what point would it be so little fun everyone just agreed to end it? * Jeff: What if the value of a home run was at least partially tied to the distance it went. For example, what if anything over 450 feet counted for an extra run, and anything over 500 counted for two extra runs? Would guys like Stanton and Judge command more of a premium? Would other guys try to tweak their approach to maximize their chances of hitting longer homers? Baseball is already the only sport where you’re never out of a game until it’s actually over, but this would increase that even more. Down by two runs in the ninth inning? One swing can erase that deficit even with no one on base. * Andrew Patrick (Patreon): I've been mulling over an idea in my head. I think that balls that bounce over the outfield fence should be home runs. This would eliminate the problem where runners on first don't score when otherwise they might score, and it still rewards balls being hit very very hard. To clarify, I think balls that bounce fair and then go over one of the side fences before the foul pole, or balls that become unplayable due to getting stuck in a fence or whatnot, should retain the same behavior of two bases. Do you think this would be a good change? Why or why not? And what would the ramifications be for this? Stat Blast * In 1952 the all star game was shortened by rain, the only time it had been shortened by rain. * In the all star game 6.1, in the regular season 8.8 in the last 10 years for runs per game. * In the all star game .225, in the regular season .256 in the last ten years for batting average. * In the all star game .274 ,in the regular season .323 in the last ten years for OBP * In the all star game .345, in the regular season .407 in the last ten years Slugging percentage. * Walk rate lower in all star game, and strike out rate higher. * The only all star game in last 10 years with over 41 players used was 2009 (51). * Last 21 all star game has seen the American League lose only 3, and have 1 tie. * Before 2008 there was no intentional walks since 1991. * There have been 39 sacrifice bunts in all star game history, 3 since 1988. * Russell Martin has put down 11 sacrifice bunts in his career, and put one down successfully in 2008. Notes * Attendance seemed to thin out very early and very quickly. * Jeff doesn't get what the all star games purpose is, or what the draw is. * Ben did not like the presentation of the home run derby. * The guys would rather see the hypothetical rehab start of Mike Trout than the all star game. * The 2 staffs combined for a 28.9 strikeout rate in the game. * Every single park design has to go through league approval. * “What if there was a spiral staircase in the triangle in Fenway” - Jeff * Clark field was there from 1928 - 1974. * Is there a developmental advantage to having a weird quirk in a field? * “All these emails about stadiums and none has a pit"- Jeff * Jeff thinks different batting stances will eventually disappear due to players being coached out of them. * There's really no “weird" batting stances left. * “I am helplessly brand loyal" - Jeff * The website was down during Podcast * Ben says Koji Uehara made 40 million. * Jeff thinks Koji Uehara made 45 - 50. * Koji Uehara made 50.25 million. * Ricky Henderson made 44.525 million. * Ben thinks pitchers have the advantage in the all star game. * Aaron Cook was an extreme ground ball guy, he intentionally walked 3 guys in 1 all star game (2008). * Players can get whatever type of pants they want. * Ben and Jeff would like the all the information they can get from what they have done in their career. * Jeff thinks seeing a guy just hit home runs would get tiring, around 57, with the police being called around 400 home runs. * If longer home runs were worth more runs the few would be more valuable and the average home run hitters would have exaggerated swings. * There used to be a rule that said any rule that bounces over the fence was a home run. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 1083: All-Star off-Day emails * Weird fields photo album Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes